Transformation of the International Monetary System and the Choice of Strategy for the Republic of Belarus

The article analyses the transformation of the international monetary system under the influence of digitalisation and geopolitical factors. It examines the consequences of disconnecting Russian and Belarusian banks from the SWIFT interbank messaging system and the freezing of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves, both of which stimulate the search for alternatives to the dollar-centric architecture. Particular attention is paid to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), their technological advantages, including high speed, low transaction costs and operational transparency, and their ability to facilitate cross-border payments without the use of the US dollar and Western financial infrastructure. The analysis focuses on the programmability of central bank digital currencies and asset tokenisation, regarded as factors that enhance the efficiency of financial transactions and foster the development of the digital economy. The role of stablecoins is examined separately, including the implications of the adoption of the GENIUS Act in the United States, which legitimises the use of dollar-denominated stablecoins as an instrument for maintaining the global dominance of the dollar in the digital era, while simultaneously creating risks for emerging markets. The concept of decentralisation is critically assessed using Bitcoin as an example, revealing tendencies towards centralisation in two key dimensions — logical and political. The final part of the article identifies the competitive advantages of the Republic of Belarus in the context of digital transformation, which include a mobilisation-based approach to digitalisation, the objective need for accelerated development of financial markets, and the necessity of improving the regulatory framework for initial coin offerings (ICOs) and cryptoassets in line with the MiCA regulation and FATF recommendations. The article substantiates the need to launch an initiative to create a regional legal infrastructure within the SCO and BRICS+ frameworks.

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