Transformation of Oil Hub Architecture and the Formation of New Price Benchmarks for Russian Crude Under Sanctions

The relevance of this study stems from the structural changes taking place in the global oil market, accompanied by the fragmentation of trade flows, the rerouting of exports, and the diminishing role of price benchmarks established by international commodity exchanges. Owing to the direct linkage between price indices and the actual purchase and sale contracts concluded for the delivery of physical oil cargoes, as well as the declining influence of these indices on pricing more broadly, market participants are reshaping the very architecture of oil trading. The aim of this paper is to analyse the formation of new seaborne oil hubs, to define their functional role in the redistribution of Russian oil flows, and to assess the impact of these processes on pricing mechanisms. The study demonstrates that the transformation of export logistics has led to the emergence of a decentralised network of alternative hubs, which not only perform their primary logistical functions but also facilitate the development of local price indicators. It is argued that, amid the fragmentation of the global oil market, a logistics-driven pricing model is taking shape, in which transport costs, sanctions risks, and transaction structures play a key role. The paper presents a simplified formula for calculating oil prices in alternative hubs. The prerequisites for and limitations on the formation of new price benchmarks for Russian oil are identified, including issues of liquidity, transparency, and institutional trust. The authors conclude that a hybrid pricing system is emerging, combining the use of traditional indices with the development of regional and alternative price references. The scientific novelty of this research lies in advancing an approach to analysing the oil market as a decentralised system in which seaborne hubs act as key elements in the generation of price signals, thereby reinforcing the importance of logistics for all participants in trading transactions and for the economies of the countries involved.

1. Alexandrov D.G., Andrianov V.V., Bessel V.V. et al. 2024. Osnovnye tendentsii razvitiya neftetreydinga v Rossii v usloviyakh fragmentatsii mirovogo tovarnogo rynka energoresursov: monografiya [Key Trends in the Development of Oil Trading in Russia amid the Fragmentation of the Global Energy Commodity Market]. Edited by E.A. Telegina. Moscow: RUSAYNS. 168 p. (In Russian)

2. Durnev N.Yu., Katioukha P.B. 2026. Phenomen tenevogo flota i ego vliyanie na stoimost’ nefti I velichinu eksportnykh discontov [The Phenomenon of the Shadow Fleet and Its Impact on Oil Prices and Export Discounts]. Innovation & Investment. No. 3. P. 82–85 (In Russian)

3. Hilgenstock B., Ribakova E., Shapoval N. et al. 2026. Russian Oil Exports Under International Sanctions. Energy Economics. Vol. 153. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109006

4. Katyukha P.B. 2025. Treyding na tovarno-syr’yevykh rynkakh: uchebnik [Trading on Commodity Markets]. Moscow: Dashkov i K. 415 p. (In Russian)

5. Katyukha P.B., Flegontov N.A. 2024. O sozdanii neftyanogo benchmarka v Rossiyskoy Arktike [On the Creation of an Oil Benchmark in the Russian Arctic]. Voprosy Ekonomiki. No. 5. P. 91–104. https://doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2024-5-91-104 (In Russian)

6. Katyukha P.B., Loshkarev A.S. 2024. Formirovaniye sistemy spotovykh khabov v Rossii v usloviyakh fragmentatsii mirovogo tovarnogo rynka uglevodorodov kak mekhanizm obespecheniya energeticheskogo suvereniteta Rossii [Formation of a System of Spot Hubs in Russia in the Context of Fragmentation of the Hydrocarbon Global Commodity Market as a Mechanism for Ensuring Russia’s Energy Sovereignty]. Problems of Economics and Management of Oil and Gas Complex. 7 (235). P. 39–47. (In Russian)

7. Mishchenko V.M. 2023. Aktual’nye voprosy tsenoobrazovaniya na neft’ [Crude Oil Pricing Current Prices]. Problems of Economics and Management of Oil and Gas Complex. 12 (228). P. 71–78. https://doi.org/10.33285/1999-6942-2023-12(228)-71-78 (In Russian)

8. Safonova T.Yu. 2023. Antagonisty tsenoobrazovaniya na Rossiyskuyu neft’ I vesomost’ natsional’nuykh tsenovuykh indikatorov [The Antagonisms of Russian Oil Pricing and the Validity of National Price Indicators]. Public Administration. 25 (2). P. 52–60. https://doi.org/10.22394/2070-8378-2023-25-2-52-60 (In Russian)

9. Solovуeva Y.V., Chernyaev M.V. 2022. Instrymentuy sovershenstvovaniya mekhanizmov kontrolya formirovaniya tsenuy na neft’ marok Brent i Urals [Tools to Improve Control Mechanisms of Brent and Urals Oil Price Generation]. Economic Systems. 15 (1 /56/). P. 242–254. https://doi.org/10.29030/2309-2076-2022-15-1-242-254 (In Russian)